Boeing recently conducted an indoor test flight using their vertical\ntakeoff and landing (VTOL) prototype aircraft capable of hauling a 500-pound\npayload for a distance of 50 miles. They\u2019re ready to move the test outdoors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This success is the next step toward a future where\nelectric-powered and autonomous aircraft will deliver goods and transport\npeople. While there are no electric-powered or gas-electric hybrid aircraft in\ncommercial operation yet, emerging technologies are setting the path for this innovative\nnew flying experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Along with all the opportunities autonomy holds, aircraft\nand tech companies must also address the fear passengers have about getting on\nairplanes without pilots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6.5 percent: Number of Americans suffering from aviophobia,\nor fear of flying, according to the National Institute of Mental Health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
25 percent: Number of Americans nervous about flying,\naccording to the National Institute of Mental Health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s also believed that the \u201cfear of flying\u201d is actually a\nfear of something else such as, acrophobia (fear of heights), claustrophobia\n(fear of closed-in spaces) or enochlophobia (fear of crowds).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regardless of the fear, there was always the thought that\npilots were in control and had the experience and training to take the controls\nand land the plane safely. Look no further than Captain Sully who famously\nlanded an Airbus A320-214 safely on the Hudson River, a crash in which every\npassenger safely deplaned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When surveyed about how comfortable they would be in a fully\nautonomous aircraft, over 70 percent of the participants indicated they would\n\u201cvery uncomfortable\u201d or \u201cuncomfortable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Autonomous aircraft has a long way to go in terms of public\nperception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How do you get there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are no commercial pilotless flight vehicles or land\nvehicles yet, but we have augmented systems driving the progression toward\nautonomy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s a progression likely to occur in transportation with\nthe constant question that needs to be answered: What\u2019s the safer mode of\ntravel?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the NHTSA, 94 percent of serious crashes are\ncaused by human error. Adaptive cruise control and park and lane assist are\nsafety features on newer vehicles pushing the trend toward autonomous vehicles\ncloser. Car manufacturers will continue combining sensor technology and GPS\nsystems to identify the risks and predict how effectively a vehicle can travel.\nSoon, autonomous driving will surpass the perceived safety of a human and the\ntransition will speed up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Once you think through in terms of cars then you begin to\nlook at it in terms of aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are currently pilotless vehicles not flying passengers\nsuch as unmanned aerial vehicles, also known as drones, most commonly used in\nthe military systems. They started with surveillance and then could carry\nmunitions. Now they can fly for 40 hours and land on their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Once drone technology progresses enough that they can fly\nautonomously, the next step after military is flying cargo. In this case, it\u2019s\nanother concept where there\u2019s not a human in the loop or physically on the\naircraft. Cargo planes flying boxes from point to point will have all the\ncapability it needs to take off and land on its own, at first with some\noversight by some supervisory system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From there the progression naturally leads to carrying\npeople.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Once you get to a level of capability in the control system\nthat, more or less, allows you to predict how the vehicle\u2019s going to behave and\nshow its reliability then eventually that begins to move to a question on\npersonal flight vehicles, such as small aircraft and air taxis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pilots spend hundreds of hours in the classroom, the air and\ninside simulators. All of this leads to one single aspect that seemingly can\u2019t\nbe replicated: experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But with simulation and digital twin technology, it can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Each simulation ran can lead to new insights that make it\nback into the digital twin ensuring accessibility across departments. The\ndigital twin can help validate the design and indicate the autonomous\ncapabilities of the aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Currently, there is a lot of physical testing during\nmanufacturing and flight testing to ensure the aircraft behaves in a stable manner.\nThe ability to do simulation earlier on in the development process ultimately\nleads to a better outcome from a business perspective; digitalization can speed\nup development and engineering and design teams can assess all the areas of\nrisk anticipated during flight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the general public becomes increasingly aware of reliable\npilotless aircraft, possibly first as a cargo-hauling vessel, then a means of\nshort-distance transportation, the more likely fear will subside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the transition from a human-piloted aircraft to an autonomous\none, new methods of training pilots are required so pilots know how to interact\nwith systems that have higher levels of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If a pilot who is trained to handle a wide range of spurious\nevents is in control when those events occur, they can probably manage it quite\nwell. But if they\u2019re doing it in conjunction with an automated system, where\ndoes the automated system stop and where does the person come in?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Part of the transition to pilotless, autonomous aircraft\nwill be having enough confidence in the robustness of the system, its ability\nto deal with false signals and how it handles possible erroneous input.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most modern aircraft have a semi-autonomous system: Frequently\nplanes take off, spend a large portion of the flight, then land under\nautopilot, but there is someone there to take over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At some point in the future, the questions will be, do you\nneed a person actually on the instruments? And does the person add to the\nsafety of the flight more than the system?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the near term, autonomous aircraft will find its use as a\nsupporting position. Sikorsky, the maker of the Black Hawk helicopter, already\nhas an autonomous prototype with over 50 hours of flight time and they\u2019re\naiming to have one in rotation next year. This system isn\u2019t intended to replace\nthe pilot, but rather support them. The pilots can use the freedom to focus on\nthe more challenging dynamics of the mission. Autonomous capabilities would\nmean reduced crew and more room for supplies and personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, in the Pacific Northwest, Airbus has surpassed\nover 100 test flights with a completely autonomous air taxi with no crashes or\nmajor problems. Matt Deal, head of flight testing said, \u201cThere is no pilot\neither on the ground or in the vehicle. From the very beginning, we were all\nautonomous.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pilotless flight vehicles will appear in many forms, and not\nexactly what we perceive. The likely progression will go through stages in\nwhich it\u2019s used to assist pilots or fly insurable cargo. Passengers vehicles\nare decades away, and as long as it aligns with the right business model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As autonomous vehicles and flights prove their capability to\nhandle spurious situations better than humans, then humans will likely embrace\nthis as a trusted mode of transportation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sometimes proof is all it takes. Once upon a time, many\nfeared riding in the driverless elevator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This concludes the first blog in our Future of Flight <\/em>series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additional Resources:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.inc.com\/wanda-thibodeaux\/afraid-of-flying-actually-youre-probably-not-according-to-psychology.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n